UFC 107: Penn vs. Sanchez Predictions

Headlined by a Lightweight Championship bout, UFC 107 will take place at the Fedex Forum in Memphis, Tenn. on Dec. 12, 2009. BJ Penn will look for a third successful title defense against Diego Sanchez who recently dropped down to 155 lbs after a long time in the Welterweight division. The fight card composed of 11 MMA bouts will also include a fight in the heavyweight division between Frank Mir and Cheick Kongo as co-main event.

Main card:

BJ Penn (14-5-1) vs. Diego Sanchez (23-2)

Both have a personal record that speaks for itself. They are both very good in  stand-up, but excel on the ground. Penn and Sanchez have never been submitted (Sanchez never lost by (T)KO either) and they both are coming off of a win.  This match a pretty tough one to call. However, Penn is undefeated at 155 lbs and he has shown more than once, and recently against Kenny Florian, that he is the undisputed champion in this weight division. If Sanchez fight the same way he did against Clay Guida then it will be a full time job for Penn to handle him in the first round. Penn though brings to the table the experience of fighting a  five-round title bout while it will Sanchez’ first time in a title bout.

Predicted winner: BJ Penn

Frank Mir (12-4) vs. Cheick Kongo (24-5-1)

Both fighters are coming off of a loss. Mir was destroyed by the beast, Brock Lesnar, at UFC 100 and Kongo was completely overwhelmed on the ground by Cain Velasquez at UFC 99. Needless to say, both need a win to stay in the race for a contender status. They are complete opposites of  each other in all aspects. Cheick Kongo is a pure striker and a powerful one at that. He has never been stopped and only lost by decisions. Kongo has all the tools to defeat Mir with his striking game and looking at Mir’s record (4 losses, all by (T)KO) he could be quite confident in this field.  The table turns on the ground, however. Frank Mir is a Brazilian Jiu Jistu black belt and a submission specialist and against Kongo’s weak, read non-existent, ground game the outcome is obvious.

If Cheick Kongo can’t finish the fight quickly with one of his devastating strikes Mir will be on his way to victory on the ground. But Mir is still upset about his loss against Lesnar and the mindset of both men once in the cage could give the advantage to the French fighter.

Predicted winner: Cheick Kongo

Jon Fitch (23-3, 1 NC) vs. Mike Mierce (9-2)

The difference in the level of competition between these two fighters is obvious. Pierce has fought only twice in major events – WEC 39 and UFC Fight Night 19 – while Fitch has a UFC record of 10-1. This kind of fight is the typical trap to beware of as Pierce has nothing to lose and wouldn’t mind having a big name written on his fight record. Both have a background in wrestling but Fitch also has a Guerilla Jiu Jitsu black belt (a mix of Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and Judo). Fitch should dominate this fight and walk out of the cage with the win.

Predicted winner: Jon Fitch

Kenny Florian (13-4) vs. Clay Guida (25-7)

It’s gonna be great to watch Guida since he always gives 100 percent in all his fights. Florian’s performance looked below par in his last fight against BJ Penn. Guida is also coming off of a loss but he and Diego Sanchez fought in a back and forth slug fest and earned the Fight of the Night honors. Both can win on the ground but the edge there goes to the Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt, Kenny Florian. On their feet Clay Guida’s quickness and unpredictable movements could give Florian a hard time and he will have to expect vicious elbows in the clinch. The key for Florian will be to take the fight to the ground and submit Guida, as this has been the most efficient tactic to defeat him so far. But first Florian will have to deal with Guida’s impressive stamina and steamroller energy.

Predicted winner: Kenny Florian

Paul Buentello (25-10) vs. Stefan Struve (22-3)

Paul Buentello returns to the UFC after three years  of fighting for the promotions Strikeforce and Affliction. Buentello is a kickboxer who usually finishes the fights by (T)KO thanks to his heavy hands. Nevertheless, he also has the ability to win on the ground as he shown in his early career. Struve also has a background in kickboxing but the other aspect of his game – the Jiu Jistu – tends to stronger as he won the majority of his fights by submission. Struve is also a quick finisher who has never made it to a third round in a fight. This fight shouldn’t last for long either. It won’t be easy for Buentello to close the distance, as the giant Dutch (6’11) has a reach of 84”, to land his powerful punches before he gets hit too much or trapped on the ground by Struve.

Predicted winner: Stefan Struve

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