Strikeforce: Evolution Cung Le vs. Scott Smith Predictions

By Guillaume Coufleau

Strikeforce: Evolution will take place at the HP Pavilion in San Jose, Cal. Dec. 19, 2009. Strikeforce: Evolution will air live on Showtime for the US and Superchannel in Canada at 10pm ET.

Cung Le, former Strikeforce Middleweight Champion returns to MMA after a lay off of more than one year. Le, who had relinquished his belt last September due to acting duties, will make his comeback against Scott Smith in a middleweight bout as main event.  Co-headlining the Evolution fight card are Josh Thomson and Gilbert Melendez for the Lightweight Championship title. Robbie Lawler’s fight against Trevor Prangley is scrapped from the card since Prangley was forced to withdraw on Monday due to injury.

Main card:

Cung Le (6-0) vs. Scott Smith (17-6)

Cung Le is a phenomenon, as a professional kickboxer his record is 22-0 and he is also undefeated in 17 sanshou fights (12 KO) and 6 MMA bouts (all (T)KO wins). His last fight was in March 2008 where he won a TKO victory over Franck Shamrock (broking his arm with sick kicks). Cung Le is a tremendous striker who uses the front kicks in the cage with a ridiculous easiness. Le has rudiments of ground game as a Brazilian jiu jitsu blue belt but he hasn’t been really tested on the canvas.

Scott Smith is an entertaining fighter to watch. He always brings the war inside the cage and in the victory as well as in the defeat the decision went to the judges only one time in his career. Smith is also a striker with heavy hands and he won most of his fight by (T)KO.

As intriguing can be this match up on the paper, the reality is quite different. Cung Le is the former middleweight champion but he didn’t lose his title, he forfeited it. It’s like a title shot for Smith but he is not a contender. Smith seems to be the first step on Le’s road to get his belt back.

Predicted winner: Cung Le

Josh Thomson (16-2, 1 NC) vs. Gilbert Melendez (16-2) – Lightweight Championship

This fight has been postponed twice since Thomson broke his ankle at training. Third time will be the charm and they will finally fight to unify the titles. Melendez is the interim title holder but he is also the former lightweight champion who owned the belt during two years until Josh Thomson defeated him on June 2008. Melendez defeated Ishida in his last in August, avenging the first loss of his career. Now he is looking for the same ending against Thomson. Melendez is a strong wrestler who also trained Brazilian jiu jitsu under Cesar Gracie but he won most of his fights by (T)KO.

Thomson is running a 8-win streak but has been forced to mark time for 15 months due to successive injuries. Thomson too is a strong wrestler who also trains at American Kickboxing Academy but he won most of his fights by submission.

In their previous confrontation Thomson earned the unanimous decision of 5 round battle in which his stand up game and lots of front kicks made the difference.

Now Thomson lacks of competition and his real physical condition is an unknown data. On the other hand Melendez has bounced back after this loss and moved on to back to back victories.

Predicted winner: Gilbert Melendez

Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (10-2, 1 NC) vs. Matt Lindland (21-6)

Both are making their Strikeforce debut but the experienced 39-year old Matt Lindland has more than twice much more fights under his belt. Souza is a Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt and a submission specialist with only two losses on his record. He was on a 10-win streak when Gegard Mousasi stopped him at Dream 6 in Sept. 2009. Matt Lindland has a background in wrestling and has shown he can win by both submission and (T)KO in his 12-year career. He is 3-3 on his last 6 fights but the losses are against Quinton Jackson, Fedor Emelianenko and Vitor Belfort. It’s an interesting match up where experience and wrestling will face youth and jiu jitsu. Lindland has probably noticed that Souza lost twice by KO and may base his strategy on his striking. If not he is more likely to get trapped on the ground like in an alligator jaws (jacare in Portuguese).

Predicted winner: Ronaldo Souza

Muhammed “King-Mo” Lawal (5-0) vs. “Iron” Mike Whitehead (26-7)

MMA veteran Mike Whitehead is only 28 but he has already 31 fights under his belt. If losses shadowed his record in his early career, his last lost against Renato Sobral at Affliction: Banned on July 2008 ended a 13-win streak. He since defeated Leo Pla and more recently Kevin Randleman at Strikeforce: Lawler vs Shields in June of this year.

Lawal’s MMA record is less impressive but he started his career at Sengoku 5 in September 2008 only.

Lawal has a strong background in wrestling. He was a US national team member in 2005 at the World Championships in Budapest, Hungary. Nevertheless he won 4 of his 5 wins with his fists making him a dangerous puncher. He is coming off of a flash TKO victory over Mark Kerr in only 25 seconds at M-1 Global: Breakthrough. It’s an interesting match up as Whitehead has a good striking game as well as solid wrestling and submission abilities. On the paper each can vie with the other one in every aspects of the game but Whitehead has fought fighters like Tim Sylvia (twice), Ben Rothwell, Brandon Vera and Renato Sobral. Even though he lost most of these bouts he sure gained a precious experience that Lawal lacks so far. But, in MMA,  experience is not a guarantee of success.

Predicted winner Muhammed Lawal.